1
Duke
32-2·ACC·East Region
Championship
16.6%
Final Four
51.6%
Elite 8
75.8%
Sweet 16
94.9%
Scouting Report
Duke still has the talent profile of a title favorite, but the Caleb Foster injury keeps the margin for error thinner than the public wants to admit. The market has trimmed them from clear favorite status into a co-favorite tier. That is still elite, just not invincible.
Key Player
Cooper Flagg
Injury Status
Caleb Foster OUT, Ngongba II Questionable
Upset Risk
high
Path to Championship
Round of 64
vs 16 Siena
99.5%
win probability
Round of 32
vs 8 Ohio State
85%
win probability
Final Four
vs 1 Michigan
45.8%
win probability
Pool Value Analysis
Public Pick Rate
28%
Expected Pickers (100-person pool)
~28.7
EV Multiplier
3.48x
Duke is a strong value pick because their championship probability is high relative to public ownership.
Rating Details
Efficiency Rating
33.8
Notes
Caleb Foster remains out, but books still have Duke near the top of the board