Probabilities

Championship odds, region views, and matchup checks powered by the bracket model.

Last refreshed: Mar 17, 7:46 AM UTC

Men's Tournament

Seeds:to

Men's Championship Probabilities

#	Team	Seed	Region	Champ	F4	E8	S16
1	Duke	1	East	19%	52.9%	79%	95.5%
2	Arizona	1	West	18.8%	57.3%	78.4%	94.9%
3	Michigan	1	Midwest	16.8%	51.6%	79.1%	95.1%
4	Florida	1	South	11.1%	41.1%	71.5%	94.4%
5	Houston	2	South	10%	37.4%	65.4%	90.3%
6	UConn	2	East	7%	28.8%	61.9%	89.7%
7	Iowa State	2	Midwest	6.2%	28%	59.1%	90.6%
8	Gonzaga	3	West	2.4%	17.2%	45.4%	78.3%
9	Virginia	3	Midwest	2%	13.9%	35.9%	80.2%
10	Purdue	2	West	1.9%	16.2%	45.3%	83.7%
11	Michigan State	3	East	1.5%	11%	32.2%	78.2%
12	Illinois	3	South	1.3%	11.4%	28.9%	77.7%
13	Nebraska	4	South	0.700%	7.2%	20.2%	63.6%
14	Arkansas	4	West	0.400%	5.7%	14%	60.6%
15	Alabama	4	Midwest	0.300%	4.1%	12.8%	58.5%
16	Kansas	4	East	0.200%	3.6%	11%	52.5%
17	St. John's	5	East	0.200%	2.9%	9.2%	45.9%
18	Vanderbilt	5	South	0.100%	1.9%	7.4%	34.6%
19	Wisconsin	5	West	0.100%	2%	6.4%	37.2%
20	Texas Tech	5	Midwest	0.100%	1.7%	6.9%	39.2%
21	BYU	6	West	0.000%	0.9%	5.8%	19.9%
22	North Carolina	6	South	0.000%	0.6%	3.4%	20.3%
23	Louisville	6	East	0.000%	0.5%	3.6%	20%
24	Tennessee	6	Midwest	0.000%	0.5%	3.2%	17.2%
25	Saint Mary's	7	South	0.000%	0.3%	2.1%	8.3%
26	Miami (FL)	7	West	0.000%	0.4%	3.3%	14.1%
27	UCLA	7	East	0.000%	0.3%	2%	8.5%
28	Kentucky	7	Midwest	0.000%	0.2%	1.5%	7.6%
29	Villanova	8	West	0.000%	0.1%	0.8%	3.3%
30	Georgia	8	Midwest	0.000%	0.1%	0.8%	3.1%
31	Clemson	8	South	0.000%	0.1%	0.7%	3.6%
32	Ohio State	8	East	0.000%	0%	0.5%	2.7%
33	TCU	9	East	0.000%	0%	0.3%	1.9%
34	Utah State	9	West	0.000%	0%	0.3%	1.7%
35	Saint Louis	9	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0.3%	1.8%
36	Iowa	9	South	0.000%	0%	0.2%	2%
37	UCF	10	East	0.000%	0%	0.2%	1.7%
38	Texas A&M	10	South	0.000%	0%	0.1%	1.4%
39	Santa Clara	10	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0.2%	1.7%
40	Missouri	10	West	0.000%	0%	0.2%	2%
41	Miami (OH)	11	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0.2%	2.3%
42	VCU	11	South	0.000%	0%	0.1%	1.8%
43	Texas	11	West	0.000%	0%	0.1%	1.6%
44	South Florida	11	East	0.000%	0%	0.1%	1.5%
45	Akron	12	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	1.6%
46	High Point	12	West	0.000%	0%	0%	1.4%
47	McNeese	12	South	0.000%	0%	0%	1.3%
48	Northern Iowa	12	East	0.000%	0%	0%	1%
49	Hawaii	13	West	0.000%	0%	0%	0.7%
50	Cal Baptist	13	East	0.000%	0%	0%	0.6%
51	Hofstra	13	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	0.6%
52	Troy	13	South	0.000%	0%	0%	0.5%
53	North Dakota St	14	East	0.000%	0%	0%	0.4%
54	Wright State	14	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	0.3%
55	Kennesaw State	14	West	0.000%	0%	0%	0.3%
56	Penn	14	South	0.000%	0%	0%	0.2%
57	Tennessee State	15	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	0.1%
58	Furman	15	East	0.000%	0%	0%	0.1%
59	Queens	15	West	0.000%	0%	0%	0.1%
60	Idaho	15	South	0.000%	0%	0%	0.1%
61	UMBC	16	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	0%
62	Siena	16	East	0.000%	0%	0%	0%
63	LIU	16	West	0.000%	0%	0%	0%
64	Prairie View A&M	16	South	0.000%	0%	0%	0%

Top Upset Picks

First round upsets by model probability

9TCUover8Ohio State

East Region

45.2%

upset prob

9Saint Louisover8Georgia

Midwest Region

43.1%

upset prob

9Iowaover8Clemson

South Region

43%

upset prob

9Utah Stateover8Villanova

West Region

42.6%

upset prob

10Santa Claraover7Kentucky

Midwest Region

30.9%

upset prob

10UCFover7UCLA

East Region

30.4%

upset prob

10Texas A&Mover7Saint Mary's

South Region

27.7%

upset prob

10Missouriover7Miami (FL)

West Region

27.2%

upset prob

11Miami (OH)over6Tennessee

Midwest Region

24.4%

upset prob

11VCUover6North Carolina

South Region

20.9%

upset prob