Probabilities

Championship odds, region views, and matchup checks powered by the bracket model.

Last refreshed: Mar 23, 4:10 PM UTC

Men's Tournament

Seeds:to

Men's Championship Probabilities

#	Team	Seed	Region	Champ	F4	E8	S16
1	Michigan	1	Midwest	21.5%	58.8%	80.9%	95.5%
2	Arizona	1	West	18.3%	56.9%	77.3%	94.8%
3	Duke	1	East	16.6%	51.6%	75.8%	94.9%
4	Florida	1	South	15.3%	46.8%	76.1%	95%
5	Houston	2	South	6.8%	27.4%	54.9%	89.2%
6	UConn	2	East	4.6%	24.3%	54.9%	87.4%
7	Illinois	3	South	3.5%	18.1%	40.6%	83.6%
8	Gonzaga	3	West	2.9%	19.8%	50.1%	78.4%
9	Iowa State	2	Midwest	2.8%	18.4%	50.1%	87.5%
10	Virginia	3	Midwest	2.3%	15.4%	42.5%	78.5%
11	Michigan State	3	East	2%	14.5%	38.1%	78.5%
12	Purdue	2	West	1.2%	12.5%	38.9%	80.2%
13	Arkansas	4	West	0.600%	7%	15.5%	62.5%
14	Nebraska	4	South	0.500%	5.5%	16.6%	62.9%
15	Kansas	4	East	0.300%	4.3%	12%	51.1%
16	Alabama	4	Midwest	0.300%	4.6%	12.2%	60%
17	St. John's	5	East	0.300%	4.2%	11.3%	47.3%
18	Vanderbilt	5	South	0.100%	1.5%	6.4%	35.1%
19	Wisconsin	5	West	0.100%	2%	6.1%	35.3%
20	Texas Tech	5	Midwest	0.100%	1.7%	5.8%	37.7%
21	BYU	6	West	0.000%	1.1%	6.8%	19.7%
22	North Carolina	6	South	0.000%	0.3%	2.4%	14.3%
23	Louisville	6	East	0.000%	0.6%	4.3%	19.6%
24	Tennessee	6	Midwest	0.000%	0.8%	5.1%	19.1%
25	Saint Mary's	7	South	0.000%	0.2%	1.9%	9.3%
26	Miami (FL)	7	West	0.000%	0.5%	3.9%	17.2%
27	UCLA	7	East	0.000%	0.3%	2.4%	10.4%
28	Kentucky	7	Midwest	0.000%	0.2%	1.9%	10.2%
29	Villanova	8	West	0.000%	0.1%	0.7%	3.2%
30	Georgia	8	Midwest	0.000%	0.1%	0.7%	2.9%
31	Clemson	8	South	0.000%	0%	0.6%	3%
32	Ohio State	8	East	0.000%	0.1%	0.6%	3%
33	TCU	9	East	0.000%	0%	0.3%	2%
34	Utah State	9	West	0.000%	0%	0.4%	2.1%
35	Saint Louis	9	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0.3%	1.6%
36	Iowa	9	South	0.000%	0%	0.3%	2%
37	UCF	10	East	0.000%	0%	0.2%	2.1%
38	Texas A&M	10	South	0.000%	0%	0.1%	1.5%
39	Santa Clara	10	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0.2%	2.2%
40	Missouri	10	West	0.000%	0%	0.2%	2.6%
41	Miami (OH)	11	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0.2%	2.2%
42	VCU	11	South	0.000%	0%	0.1%	1.8%
43	Texas	11	West	0.000%	0%	0.1%	1.7%
44	South Florida	11	East	0.000%	0%	0.1%	1.5%
45	Akron	12	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	1.7%
46	High Point	12	West	0.000%	0%	0%	1.6%
47	McNeese	12	South	0.000%	0%	0%	1.5%
48	Northern Iowa	12	East	0.000%	0%	0%	1%
49	Hawaii	13	West	0.000%	0%	0%	0.7%
50	Cal Baptist	13	East	0.000%	0%	0%	0.6%
51	Hofstra	13	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	0.6%
52	Troy	13	South	0.000%	0%	0%	0.5%
53	North Dakota St	14	East	0.000%	0%	0%	0.4%
54	Wright State	14	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	0.2%
55	Kennesaw State	14	West	0.000%	0%	0%	0.3%
56	Penn	14	South	0.000%	0%	0%	0.3%
57	Tennessee State	15	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	0.1%
58	Furman	15	East	0.000%	0%	0%	0.1%
59	Queens	15	West	0.000%	0%	0%	0.1%
60	Idaho	15	South	0.000%	0%	0%	0.1%
61	UMBC	16	Midwest	0.000%	0%	0%	0%
62	Siena	16	East	0.000%	0%	0%	0%
63	LIU	16	West	0.000%	0%	0%	0%
64	Prairie View A&M	16	South	0.000%	0%	0%	0%

Top Upset Picks

First round upsets by model probability

9TCUover8Ohio State

East Region

45.5%

upset prob

9Iowaover8Clemson

South Region

45.2%

upset prob

9Utah Stateover8Villanova

West Region

45.1%

upset prob

9Saint Louisover8Georgia

Midwest Region

43.3%

upset prob

10Santa Claraover7Kentucky

Midwest Region

30.8%

upset prob

10UCFover7UCLA

East Region

30.2%

upset prob

10Texas A&Mover7Saint Mary's

South Region

27.8%

upset prob

10Missouriover7Miami (FL)

West Region

27.2%

upset prob

11VCUover6North Carolina

South Region

23.7%

upset prob

11Miami (OH)over6Tennessee

Midwest Region

23.2%

upset prob