1
Michigan
31-3·Big Ten·Midwest Region
Championship
16.8%
Final Four
51.6%
Elite 8
79.1%
Sweet 16
95.1%
Scouting Report
Michigan's massive frontcourt is a matchup nightmare for every team in their region. But the Cason injury is a real problem — without a reliable backup point guard, one foul trouble sequence could end their tournament. When they're rolling, they look like a national champion. When they're not, they look beatable.
Key Player
Tre Donaldson
Injury Status
Cason (PG) — Day-to-Day
Upset Risk
medium
Path to Championship
Round of 64
vs 16 UMBC
99.7%
win probability
Round of 32
vs 8 Georgia
94.6%
win probability
Final Four
vs 1 Duke
47.7%
win probability
Pool Value Analysis
Public Pick Rate
12%
Expected Pickers (100-person pool)
~12.9
EV Multiplier
7.76x
Michigan is a strong value pick because their championship probability is high relative to public ownership.
Rating Details
Efficiency Rating
34.2
Notes
Huge lineup but PG depth concern (Cason injury)